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by Vinicio Balducci — last modified Jun 30, 2008 01:20 PM
The RISK-AWARE project aims at developing an integrated system that exploits multiple data and information to forecast meteorological events and their geo-hydrological consequences. Research activities focus on: (i) the definition of methodologies, models and suitable data sets, (ii) the definition of guidelines for geo-hydrological risk prevention and management, (iii) the design and development of appropriate data communication and archive systems, (iv) the implementation of operational prototypes over selected areas, and (v) the deployment of the developed models and facilities to the end-users. The main results obtained by our team in the RISK-AWARE project can be summarized as follows: (a) A review of rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides, including an analysis of their potential applicability in real-time landslide warning system. (b) A database of more than 1600 rainfall events that resulted (or did not result) in landslides worldwide. The database lists information on rainfall, landslide and climate characteristics. (c) A rigorous method, based on Bayesian inference, to determine the lowest rainfall intensity needed to initiate landslides for a range of rainfall durations, form 20 minutes to 15 days. (d) A set of intensity-duration and normalized intensity-duration thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides. We have determined thresholds for the CADSES area – in central and southern Europe – and for the entire World.